Seeing Sideways - The Dunning-Kruger Effect: Why We Think We Know More Than We Do

“Confidence can signal progress, but unchecked, it can also become a ceiling.”

Have you ever felt overly confident about a skill, only to later realize how little you actually knew?

Discover the Dunning-Kruger Effect—why the less we know, the more confident we often feel—and learn practical tools to balance confidence with humility, curiosity, and growth. This episode from Seeing Sideways explores how to build resilience and clarity by questioning what we think we already know.

Key Takeaway Insights and Tools

• The Dunning-Kruger Effect explained — why novices often feel overconfident while experts underestimate themselves. (05:15)
• Everyday examples — from learning guitar to giving advice online, this bias shows up in work, relationships, and decision-making. (06:06–07:14)
• The evolutionary twist — overconfidence may once have protected survival but now often leads to mistakes. (07:52)
• The cost of overconfidence — risky decisions, stalled growth, and strained relationships. (08:12–09:24)
• The Contrarian Move — replace false certainty with intellectual humility, feedback-seeking, self-reflection, and a growth lens. (09:24–12:11)
• Clarity is resilience — the most resilient thinkers distinguish confidence from competence and keep updating their knowledge. (12:23–12:47)

If today’s episode gave you a new perspective, share it with someone who could benefit. And don’t forget to subscribe so you’ll catch next week’s episode on the self-serving bias.

Host Bio

Jason White Birkevold Liem is a resilience coach, author of Seeing Sideways, and host of It’s an Inside Job. He helps leaders, coaches, and professionals strengthen resilience, improve communication, and build clarity from the inside out. Connect with Jason at www.mindtalk.no or follow him on LinkedIn.

Chapters

• 0:16 Introduction to the Podcast
• 1:42 Practical Tips for Everyday Challenges

Transcript

0:07

Ever catch yourself focusing on what's wrong instead of what's possible? Or judging someone too quickly only to realize you were off? That's not a flaw. It's your brain doing what it was wired to do, taking shortcuts. In this special series, we're walking through my book, Seeing Sideways, one chapter at a time. Each episode explores a powerful cognitive bias that quietly shapes how we think, choose, and connect. These mental shortcuts helped our ancestors to survive. But today, they can cloud judgment, limit perspective, and chip away at well-being. So this isn't about fixing your brain. It's about understanding it so you can lead yourself with clarity, respond with intention, and build resilience from the inside out. Well, welcome back. In the previous episodes, we've explored a number of cognitive biases that affect our perception and how to, well, see sideways, pass them to get a clearer picture. In the next few episodes, we are going to explore part two, and that is the story we tell ourselves and the cognitive biases that contributed to the narratives that run through our heads. Because when we think about it, there is a human operating system that runs in all of us and it goes from head to heart to hand. That means that our thinking drives our feelings, which drives our doing. And that thinking, well, a lot of times it's happening automatically. Our brain is assessing the situation and it constructs a narrative about our place in the world and the world around us in general. So, so far, we've explored the shortcuts your brain takes to understand the world around you. How it filters facts, misjudges risks, leans on first impressions, and sees patterns that may not be there. The cognitive tools your mind uses to stay oriented in a complex world. But now, as I've mentioned, we're going to go deeper. The next set of biases isn't just about how we see the world, it's about how we see ourselves, our competence, our identity, choices and the past. These biases shape the stories we tell about who we are, what we deserve, what we've done, and why we act the way we do. And because they operate closer to the ego, they're harder to spot and to let go of. These are the stories we defend without realizing it. You'll meet the Dunning-Kruger effect, which explains why the less we know, the more confident we often feel. We'll also explore the self-serving bias, the mental habit of taking credit for our successes while blaming others or circumstances for our failures, protecting our self-image, but often limiting our own growth. We'll also encounter cognitive dissonance, that inner tension between what we believe and how we behave, and the subtle rationalizations we use to reduce that discomfort. We are also going to explore another bias called emotional reasoning, and that's the tendency to treat feelings as facts where anxiety, guilt, or shame, well, how they can distort what we believe to be true. We're also going to examine the egocentric bias, that quiet assumption that others see, think, and feel as we do, and how that belief clouds communication and connection. Finally, we'll confront the narrative fallacy. Our brains desire to rewrite the past into clean, coherent stories that preserve our sense of identity, even when the truth is far more complex. This part of the sojourn is more emotional. The biases here can't be debugged with data alone. They're deeply human, tied to vulnerability, pride, shame, fear, and the desire to feel consistent and in control. That doesn't make them bad, of course not. It just means we need to meet them with curiosity and not condemnation. Many of these biases once helped us function socially. They gave us confidence when we lacked experience. It protected us from public failure and allowed us to belong. When they go unchecked though, they can calcify into blind spots that keep us from evolving. So in this next section, it invites something different. Reflection over reaction. Instead of trying to fix or fight these patterns, you're going to learn to observe them, to ask gentler, more honest questions, to notice when your mind is protecting you and when it's keeping you stuck. Because the most resilient people aren't the ones who never feel biased. They're the ones who notice it, name it, and choose a wiser path. So let's begin this exploration. So in this episode, we are going to kick off exploring the first of these biases, and that is the less we know, the more confident we feel, or better known as the Dunning-Kruger effect. The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a particular domain, well, they tend to overestimate their competence. And at the same time, those who are more skilled or knowledgeable may underestimate theirs. It's the classic case of the less you know, the more you think you know. The less information you have, the more confident you feel in your judgments because you don't yet understand the depth of the topic. This bias stems from a lack of self-awareness. When we first encounter a new skill or idea, we have no context for how much more there is to learn. This often leads us to feel overconfident, assuming that we've grasped the basics. We must have a deeper understanding. The less we know, the more we're prone to believing we've mastered the subject. The trap. So I'd like you to take a moment and imagine you've just started learning how to play the guitar. You know a few chords and you can play a basic tune. You're feeling good, really good. You think, man, I could totally perform in front of an audience. I've got this. But you've barely scratched the surface. You haven't yet encountered the complexities of guitar techniques or the need for musical theory yet. Well, your confidence is soaring. The Dunning-Kruger effect is in play, fooling you into thinking you're more skilled than you are. Now, this bias doesn't just appear in hobbies. In the workplace, people with little experience in the field may think they can handle significant decisions without realizing they lack the full scope of knowledge. It also shows up in social media, where individuals feel confident giving advice on complex topics like health, psychology, or politics. And that's just after reading a few articles or watching videos. In relationships, it might lead to someone believing they understand their partner's feelings even without fully considering their perspective. The Dunning-Kruger effect often goes hand-in-hand with the failure to seek further learning or feedback. When we feel overly confident in our abilities, well, we stop growing because we assume we're already good enough. The twist. The Dunning-Kruger effect is rooted in a mismatch between our perceived and our actual competence. From an evolutionary perspective, this bias may have been useful in that it encouraged early humans to act and make decisions quickly. In times of danger, a false sense of confidence could have been life-saving. It is better to decide and act than to freeze out of uncertainty. However, this overconfidence is more likely to lead to mistakes in our modern life. But here's the interesting part. Experts in the field often suffer from the opposite bias, the imposter syndrome, where they underestimate their competence. The more they know, the more aware they are of how much they don't know. So, while the novice feels overly confident, well, the expert may feel like a fraud. The cost. The Dunning-Kruger effect leads to overconfidence, which can have serious consequences. In the workplace, it may cause an individual to take on responsibilities that they're not equipped for, potentially leading to failure or even burnout. In personal development, it can hinder progress. If we think we've mastered something, we may stop seeking out more information or trying to improve. Now, this bias also impacts decision making. Overconfidence leads to risky decisions because we believe we know more than we do. For example, a person with little knowledge of finance, well, they may invest money in volatile stocks, believing they have the market figured out. This can result in financial losses that could have been avoided if they had approached the situation with more humility and a willingness to learn. Moreover, the Dunning-Kruger effect can affect relationships too. Overestimating our ability to understand others or solve problems can lead to misunderstandings, frustration, and even conflict. The more we assume we know, the less likely we are to listen or empathize. The Contrarian Move The antidote to the Dunning-Kruger effect isn't less confidence, better confidence, built on humility, curiosity, and continuous learning. When we acknowledge that our early confidence might feel bigger than it is, well, we gain something far more valuable than certainty. It's the ability to grow, to develop, and to learn. Practice intellectual humility. Stay open, not certain. Confidence can signal progress, but unchecked, it can also become a ceiling. Intellectual humility means recognizing the limits of what you know and staying curious about what you might be missing. It's different between saying, I know this, and asking, what don't I know yet? Now, this shift invites questions, conversations, and complexity, and that's where real skill begins. When you ground confidence and curiosity rather than certainty, you don't lose self-assurance. You earn it. Seek out constructive feedback. Let others fill the gaps. Feedback is a fast track to clarity, but only if you're open to it. Ask those with more experience what they notice that you don't. Instead of waiting for praise, request critique. For example, try asking, what's one thing I could improve here? Or what would you have done differently? So this isn't about diminishing yourself. It's about accelerating your learning. What feels like vulnerability is often the gateway to mastery. Use reflection as a mirror. Recalibrate often. When confidence spikes, take a pause. Ask yourself, have I tested this confidence? Where might I still be blind? Document what you've learned and what still feels fuzzy. Journaling small wins and lingering questions helps you map progress. Without mistaking it for completion. Self-reflection doesn't just keep you honest, it keeps you evolving. For example, if you're a student and you're trying to make sure you've memorized or learned a particular topic, maybe look in the mirror and try to explain it to yourself from point A to point C. See where you get stuck. Those are clear road signs where you need to dive a little deeper to create the connective tissues between the two points of knowledge that you already have. Adopt a growth lens. Swap identity for iteration. Instead of thinking, I'm good at this, shift to I'm improving at this. That mindset frees you from the trap of early certainty. You're not trying to prove you're an expert. You're practicing how to become one. When your identity is built on being a learner, not just skilled. Well, setbacks stop being threats. They become fuel. The people who improve the most aren't the ones who start the strongest. They're the ones who stay open the longest. Clarity is resilience. Resilient thinkers don't assume early wins means mastery. They honor the difference between confidence and competence and keep updating their map as they go. They know that real growth means letting go of false certainty to make room for greater skill and they welcome that discomfort because they know it's where the next level lives. As usual, I'd like to leave you with a little thought work, a little homework. I want you to think of a skill or a subject you feel confident in. Now ask, what part of this have I never questioned? What do experts see that I don't? Then take one concrete step. Read a book. Watch a master. Ask a mentor. That nudges your knowledge beyond where you stopped. So the next time you feel unusually confident about something new, pause and ask, what's one thing I haven't explored about this yet? Take a small step to deepen your knowledge, the one that can shift you from illusion to insight. And I'll see you next week where we're going to be exploring the self-serving bias, why protecting our pride can sometimes do more harm than good. Thanks for listening to this episode of Seeing Sideways. These biases aren't flaws. They're part of how our brains make sense of a complex world. But with awareness, we can move from reaction to reflection, from assumption to intention. So if today's episode offered you a new perspective, please share with someone who might benefit. Because the real work of thinking clearly, choosing wisely, and leading with purpose, well, it's all an inside job. See you next time. Music.